STAT235 The Solution for High Student Loans Research Paper i have started this but i can’t finish it. requirments are in the attached document FINAL RESEAR

STAT235 The Solution for High Student Loans Research Paper i have started this but i can’t finish it. requirments are in the attached document FINAL RESEARCH PAPER
General Rubric
There is a blank template at the end of this document, in addition to a “quick-start ProConCloud
narrative”, showing how to quickly transform the image into a research paper.
CATEGORY
DESCRIPTION
General
Comments
1. Our scheduled Final is Tuesday, May 14, from 8:00am – 10:00am (in our
classroom). Please turn in your Research Paper at that time.
2. Your ProConCloud serves as your “research-roadmap” – be sure and include
it with your paper.
3. I will be in class Friday (from 8:00 – noon) if you want me to review your
paper.
The Problem
1. Have I written a compelling short story describing why this problem matters
to me?
2. Do I have 2 pieces of evidence showing how large the problem is?
The Research
1. Do I have 6 – 10 pieces of evidence, helping me understand both the scope
of the problem, and also why the problem exists?
2. With at least two of these pieces of evidence, have I highlighted
“inconsistencies”, and then explained why these inconsistencies exist?
3. With each piece of evidence, have I put things in this order:
a. question – source – answer to the question
b. THEN show the piece of evidence
The CAUSE
and
CONFLICT
of my
problem
1. Is the cause of my problem written as an action / decision someone made?
2. Have I written an “I’d expect to see” paragraph?
3. Have I included a reason why the action taken was taken, despite (likely)
being aware of the negative consequences? Remember: try and find this
motivation in terms of the “All people are good” hypothesis.
A Direction of 1. Is my solution written as an action – and who is going to make this action?
a Solution
2. Have I written the PROs and CONs if this solution is implemented?
3. Have I included some action to minimize the negative consequences of my
solution?
The
Conclusion
* Does my conclusion paint a before?after picture of dread?hope, telling
where we are, where we can be, and what it’s going to take to get us there?
1
FINAL RESEARCH PAPER
Notes on the Discussion with Your Expert
A. If you’re not able to contact your “Expert”, at least find someone who knows more
than you on the subject.
B. make sure your expert knows what you’re going to do with their help: this is for a
paper in our class alone, and their name will not be used – only their title. What
we’re interested in is their expertise in making the paper “better than it is”.
YOUR JOB
YOUR EXPERT’S JOB
Be Very Knowledgeable About …
Provide …
1. the problem
1. corrections to what you say
2. why the problem matters to you
3. the extent of the problem
2. additional thoughts (on what you didn’t
say)
4. the background of the problem
3. specific TOM insight
5. the cause of the problem
6. why (someone) acts the way they do,
despite knowing it’s causing the problem
7. a possible solution to the problem
8. unintended consequences of solving the
problem.
2
FINAL RESEARCH PAPER
The ProConCloud and Organizing Your Research
3
A sample paper – I’ve included the part of the ProConCloud in red for your information –
please do not include this in your paper!
THE DIABETES EPIDEMIC
An Interesting Solution to a Growing Problem
Mike Round
Statistics 235
(how does this problem affect me)
I met Professor Tim Noakes of the Sports Science Institute of South Africa in 2015. Professor
Noakes was leading the fight against obesity in South Africa. This came after his father had
passed away from diabetes-related complications. Professor Noakes had previously been an
advocate of a high-carb / low-fat diet, and now this diet had contributed to his father’s death.
When I hear him talk on this issue, the sense of anguish is obvious. But since our initial meeting,
I’ve realized Since our meeting, I’ve realized I suffer from many of the same symptoms his father
had, and really worry about a similar diagnosis.
(what evidence is there this problem is huge)
And I’m not alone. Diabetes is a huge problem, affecting many people and at great cost.
The following information graphic, from the American Diabetes Association, shows “The
Staggering Costs of Diabetes”: more than 30 million people have diabetes, associated costs per
year are $327 billion, and perhaps most ominously, 84 million people have pre-diabetes:
4
Additionally, according to this table from “Economic Costs of Diabetes in the U.S. in 2017”,
277,000 people died in 2017 alone from diabetes or diabetes-related conditions.
(what is the problem bothering me)
There is a diabetes epidemic in the United States.
(transition to your research)
As many “solutions” to problems often lead to poor results and / or unintended negative
consequences, let’s learn more about diabetes.
5
(statistical short story: 6 – 10 pieces of evidence that help me better understand the problem)
Has diabetes always been such a huge problem, or only recently?
The following graph from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) 2017 report on
“Long Term Trends in Diabetes” shows the incidents of diabetes have not only been increasing
since 1958, but even more dramatically since 1997:
What happened in 1997 to cause a change in the rate of increase?
In 1997, the American Diabetes Association (ADA) revised the classification of diabetes from
“IDDM and NIDDM” (insulin-dependent and non-insulin dependent) diabetes mellitus to “Type I
and Type II” diabetes. Further, the ADA lowered the fasting glucose threshold (“blood-sugarlevel”).
How much did the fasting glucose threshold change, and how many people were affected by
the change?
The following graph, from the article “Is the Problem that Everything is a Diagnosis?”, shows the
glucose threshold levels were dropped from 140 mg/dL to 126 mg/dL, resulting in nearly 1 million
more Americans being diagnosed with diabetes, merely by changing the definition of “diabetes”:
6
Is the diabetes problem restricted to the U.S., or is this problem worldwide?
The following map, from the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas (8th Edition), shows
not only are 425 million people currently diagnosed with diabetes, but this is projected to rise to
629 million people by 2045:
7
Who is afflicted with diabetes in the United States?
The following map, from the CDC’s “United States Diabetes Surveillance System”, shows the
Southeastern US has a much higher diabetes rate than the rest of the US, though there are a few
other areas that have an unusually high rate (particularly when compared with surrounding
areas):
Why do certain areas have unusually high diabetes rates?
The following map, from the report “CDC Identifies Diabetes Belt”, shows the “diabetes belt”
consists of 644 counties in 15 states:
8
Why are diabetes’ rates higher in the “Diabetes Belt”?
In this same report the CDC says “People in the diabetes belt are more likely to be African
American, and African Americans are at higher risk for type 2 diabetes. People living in the
diabetes belt also are less likely to have a college degree. Lower education levels are associated
with increased risk for type 2 diabetes.” Additionally, the CDC says “The diabetes belt has higher
rates of obesity and physical inactivity than other U.S. regions. If these rates are reduced.”
How do diabetes rates differ by race?
The following graph, from the CDC’s 2017 “National Diabetes Prevention Report”, shows AfricanAmericans (non-Hispanic Blacks) having 50% greater chance of contracting diabetes than Whites
(12.2 / 8.1), while American Indians have an even higher risk of contracting the condition.
Why is there a rise in diabetes cases?
9
The following pair of graphs, from the magazine “Obesity” in 2006, shows the relationship
between weight gain and obesity, and diabetes, and a high correlation between obesity and
diabetes.
(I’m moving to a CAUSE of the problem, but remember:
Try and write the CAUSE in terms of an ACTION or DECISION somebody made.
Why are people obese? One reason is the quality of food a person eats: many people don’t eat
healthy food.
But if eating unhealthy food causes obesity and possibly diabetes, I would expect people to simply
eat healthy food! Why do people continue to eat unhealthy food, despite knowing it’s not good
for them?
The following table, from the Pew Research Center, lists “Convenience, Taste, Advertisement,
and Cost” as the positive motivations for knowingly eating things not good for us:
10
(a possible solution: what ACTION do I think will help solve the problem)
An additional response from this survey leads to the direction of possible action to address this
problem. According to this survey, one reason people don’t eat healthy is “People don’t know
which foods are healthy”.
Do we really not know what foods are healthy? The following graphic shows two covers of Time
magazine. The former cover, from 1984, denounces “eggs” as elevating cholesterol levels and
thus leading to heart attacks, while the latter, from 1999, praises “eggs”!
11
It’s no wonder “People don’t know which foods are healthy”: how could they when there’s
disagreement among the medical community itself regarding a proper diet for a diverse
population.
But this itself is an inconsistency to me: how can there be professional and expert disagreement
on such an important topic?
One reason might be because of the diversity of populations and differences of people. One diet
might be fine for a particular group of people, but damaging to another.
(my revised ACTION I think will help solve the problem)
But what if the professional didn’t have to make a recommendation for a diverse population, but
instead was asked to recommend a diet for a specific person, depending on their circumstances?
(a statement about the PROS and CONS of taking this action)
What are the positive consequences of having a diet tailored to the individual? People would be
incentivized to eat better, knowing the diet has been chosen specifically for them.
Are there any negative consequences of this action? Obtaining a specific recommendation from
a doctor or nutritionist means meeting with them. This could take significant time and come at
significant cost.
How would this policy affect the medical community? According to Physician Practice magazine,
a “wish-list” of physicians showed 57% wished to work fewer hours per week:
With my solution, I’m now only making the problem worse!
Is there any action I can take to minimize these negative consequences?
12
(What can we do to minimize the negative consequences of our solution?)
Does it really require PHYSICALLY meeting with a doctor or nutritionist in order to get specific
diet information? What if we could extract the knowledge from a nutritional expert, incorporate
this into an artificial intelligence system, and then give people access to this system. If the expert
decision were “up2tom”, what would TOM say?
In meeting with my expert, a trained ___________, they gave the following explanation on what
they would need to know to fully “train TOM”: (this is just a sample display … you can input it
either way):
But is this all? Are there any other negative consequences I need to be aware of? Let’s remember
two reasons people don’t eat healthy: convenience and cost. Does having access to expert and
personalized dietary advice (TOM) address either convenience or cost? No. So it’s likely my
grand solution may not lead to positive results, unless I can think of an additional action to take
to address these issues.
(conclusion – remember the scope of the problems in the introduction: how does this problem
affect you and others? Now you’ve proposed a solution, addressed the negative
consequences, and therefore have the beginning of a plan to change the future. WHAT
WOULD THIS NEW FUTURE LOOK LIKE?)
13
Every morning, I wake up hoping my lower left leg won’t feel numb, but am always met with the
awful reality it is. “Hope” without a plan leads to an awful state of mind: inevitable dread.
Millions live with a figurative “dark cloud” hanging over them as a definite diabetes diagnosis
puts a word to many actual symptoms. Unfortunately, many millions more have these same
symptoms, but have yet to be diagnosed. Millions die. Billions are spent. And the problem is
only getting worse. It’s exciting to think a simple solution like “TOM”, an expert-dietary-advicesystem, may provide the start of a dietary revolution – and therefore, a lifestyle revolution, and
a sunny future!
14
THE PROCONCLOUD
and a Simple Narrative
The image and narrative below describe two issues of the ProConCloud and the paper:
Note 1: be sure the cause and effect reads well.
Note 2: what is a good way to read the ProConCloud – and translate it into a paper?
NOTE 1: Does the cause and effect read well? And remember, push to find a cause where
someone has made a decision, and taken an action based on that decision.
If people don’t eat well, then there is a diabetes epidemic.
NOTE 2: The above diagram could be read as follows:
What is the cause of the diabetes epidemic? People don’t eat well. But I would expect, in this
century and with the knowledge we have, people would eat well.
Because if they did eat well, people would be happy and healthy. Is there a downside to eating
well? Of course, I’d miss out on all the things I love to eat.
So why don’t people eat well? The food is cheap and convenient. So people knowingly don’t eat
well for a good reason, despite knowing this same food will lead to obesity.
How can I break out of this conflict, and suggest a solution to help?
Doctors should recommend a diet for each patient.
15
Because if they did, people would have confidence the food they’re eating will lead to their better
health.
Are there any downsides to this solution? Doctors will be swamped with patients is one. Another
is the issue of cost and convenience: what makes me think because people now know what’s best
for them in particular, they’ll abandon these features of food?
Because these unintended consequences are predictable with a little thought, are there any
actions we can take to minimize their damage?
I don’t really need to physically see a doctor to get this advice. If a nutritional “TOM” was
developed, everybody would have access to expert and individual dietary information.
Therefore, doctors offices would not be swamped.
What about “cost and convenience”? That still needs to be addressed.
16
THE PROCONCLOUD
A blank template
17

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